By Christopher M Peeks September 29, 2024
Recent polling data from AtlasIntel indicates that in the key swing states, former President Donald Trump is currently leading Vice President Kamala Harris. These states play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the election. The survey, which included likely voters in battleground states, shows that Trump is ahead in Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2) and Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1).
According to AtlasIntel, Trump also holds a "narrow" lead in the toss-up states of Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). On the other hand, Harris is leading in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7).
AtlasIntel, recognized as the most accurate polling group of the 2020 presidential election by 538, projects that Trump would secure 290 Electoral College votes and win the 2024 race if he were to win all five battleground states where he currently leads in their polling, with Harris at 248.
The polls conducted by AtlasIntel took place between September 20-25 with a margin of error ranging between 2-3 percentage points.
The surveys from AtlasIntel suggest that Trump could secure victory in two of the "blue wall" battleground states, which are crucial to Harris. Conversely, Harris needs to win the three blue wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to attain the necessary 270 Electoral College votes for winning the election, barring any unexpected outcomes elsewhere.
If Trump secures victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia in November, he would have enough votes to be declared the overall winner. Alternatively, Trump could also win by prevailing over Harris in the four Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada, and flipping just one of Wisconsin or Michigan.
The AtlasIntel survey indicates that Harris is leading in North Carolina, where the poll was conducted amid the controversy surrounding the Trump-endorsed North Carolina gubernatorial hopeful Mark Robinson. Robinson has faced accusations, including describing himself as a "Black Nazi" on a pornographic website's message board more than a decade ago, among other controversies.
Concerns have been raised about whether Trump's campaign in the crucial swing state of North Carolina will be affected by his association with Robinson. David B. McLennan, a political science professor and pollster at Meredith University, previously informed Newsweek that Trump may be "somewhat inoculated" from Robinson's controversies due to the state's history of ticket-splitting. McLennan further added that even the "loss of a few percentage points by Trump could matter" in North Carolina in the tight race.
The AtlasIntel swing state surveys polled 946 likely voters in Arizona, 1,200 likely voters in Georgia, 918 likely voters in Michigan, 1,173 likely voters in North Carolina, 1,775 likely voters in Pennsylvania, and 1,077 likely voters in Wisconsin. Each state's results have a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, except Pennsylvania, which has a two percentage point margin of error.
C-Evan Palmer Newsweek
Christopher M Peeks
Reporter and Columnist
Alabama Political Contributor
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